Wednesday 28 April 2010

UK General Election Drinking Game

Below are some suggestions for a drinking contest for this years UK General Election;


UK General Election Drinking Contest!

Come in the colour of a political party (either face paint or t shirts in that colour):

Labour =
Red
Conservatives =
Blue
Liberals =
Yellow
Greens =
Green
UKIP =
Purple
Monster Raving Loony = Black
If you're a racist the BNP have three colours so be creative lol

As each Constituency/Place is decided after the votes are counted the results are broadcast live on the BBC that night, so we feel it only proper to turn this results show into a drinking contest.

Rules and Regs:

1. When your party wins a constituency (place) drink.
2. When your party loses a constituency that it should win (i.e won last time) drink.
3. Every time the Liberal Democrats win a seat do two fingers of your drink.
4. Every time 'Hung Parliament' is mentioned last person to stand up has to down their drink.
5. The names Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are all banned from being mentioned during the game, if someone should say one of these names, they will be punished with a shot to drink ...
6. If the TV results cut to Northampton South (i.e our constituency as students in Northampton) or the word Northampton is mentioned at all on the show, everyone in the room does a shot!
7. In the unlikely even that either UKIP, BNP, GREEN or Monster Raving Loony party's win a seat/constituency then the supporters of said teams shall have to do a funnel of death ...
8. There are no rules.
9. Rules are subject to change/addition at any moment.

Rock on.

p.s excessive drinking is not condoned or endorsed by this blog, drink in moderation.

Saturday 24 April 2010

election betting, where are the good odds?

DISCLAIMER: All opinions discussed are personal and any facts listed in this blog can be found on the BBC news election website.

The lead up to this election has been one of the most open election months we have ever known.
With that in mind it would stand to reason that the predictability of previous elections in certain parts of the country may be thrown out of the window, leaving us with some good value for election time betting.

A combination of border changes in many constituency's, the live televised debates and the large number of independents and various smaller party's means this year there are many possible outcomes.
The recent surge in interest towards the Liberal Democrats is a fly in the ointment for the main other party's, but as punters I believe it has created an interesting situation for us to thrive upon.

Where previously it was a two horse race it is now three, where previously Labour was just edging it, the Lib Dems should now steal a portion of the vote, letting the Tory's win some constituency's they may not have before, and vice versa...

The poor old Independents may pinch the odd seat here and there, but generally they look set for a hammering, mainly because where people would of previously protest voted and opted for them, many are now considering voting Liberal.
This exact situation has been recognised in the Brighton Pavilion constituency, where the Green party is considered to have a strong hold, but with Liberal ideas considered similar in many respects, has the switch over become easier for the people of Brighton after seeing the televised debates. At the long odds of 32/1 to win the seat, are the Lib Dems now worth a quid in Brighton as a long shot?
In fact, one of the major betting trends apparent in this election is that many bookmakers are still offering very good value on the Liberal Democrats,
despite the improving polling of the party and the general good feeling surrounding it.

Who's targeting what?

Conservative targets
116 target seats

Labour targets
44 target seats

Liberal targets
30 target seats

North of the border the Scottish National Party have 14 target seats and in Wales Plaid Cymru are targeting 12 new seats.
So, where is the value? Who's likely to win what seat and what are the odds? Where can I cash in on this?

Well like anything, nothings certain and its all speculation, but there are some constituency's worth having a punt on in my opinion...
Below I will choose one stand out constituency from England, Scotland and Wales and discuss what I think might happen there. You're free to tell me whether you agree or not.


Wales

Wales and Scotland are more interesting than ever because there are not only the three main party's there but also the nationalist party's which has helped to improve the odds in general.
In Wales I'm looking at the likely-hood of the constituency of Aberconwy changing hands and what the odds are there:

Aberconwy

A seat worth betting on.
It is a seat up for grabs, so the odds are good here ...

Percentage vote 2005 or projected percentage (if new boundaries are in place):

Labour
33.0%
Conservative
29.1%
Liberal Democrat
19.1%

Current odds:

Conservatives: 4/9
Plaid Cymru: 4/1
Liberal Democrats: 5/1
Labour: 12/1

This is Conservative target seat number 37
This is Liberal Democrat target seat number 97
This is Plaid Cymru target seat number 5

At 4/1 Plaid have got to be value to get this seat, having said that, Labour having a 33% projected vote share in 2005 (as its a new consituency its projected) surely it is their seat to lose, will this be one of the seats they can hold on to, and at 12/1 ...it could be a money spinner for the astute punter.

If you're inclined to think Labour are going to take a hammering in this election, back Plaid at 4/1...
If you think Labour will hold out in Wales or that they will not do as badly as the polls and the speculation predicts, back Labour to hold the seat at the larger odds of 12/1.


Scotland

Alex Salmond of the SNP seeks to push his party's presence in Scotland even further. He's targeting 14 seats, 13 of them Labour and only one of them a Lib Dem seat.
We have to assume, based on the increased popularity of the Lib Dems in the polls that he probably wont win that seat and with a 13% majority to the Lib Dems in Argyll & Bute, it looks probable they will retain it. However, some of the Labour seats are up for grabs in Scotland, Labours popularity across the entire British Isles is at an all time low and with Scottish nationalism seemingly on the increase, you'd have to say the SNP will probably be rewarded with a fair number of seats in this election, so lets look where they might steal a seat, and where the value is:

Stirling

Perhaps of all the Scottish consituencys up for grabs, Stirling is one of the most interesting because it could be an indicator for the rest.
All the party's appear marginal and so everyone has a chance here. It looks like the bookies are struggling to know how to call it:

Labour: 6/5
Conservative: 13/8
Liberal Democrat: 5/1
SNP: 7/1

Stirling is 104 on the list of Conservative targets.
It is Liberal Democrat target number 55
The SNP have targeted it number 8 on their list.

Labour are obviously favourites to win this seat and hold onto it, but at the moment they are holding on with 4,767 votes, a figure that has dwindled from prior elections.
In 1983, 1987 and 1992 this was a Conservative seat. On top of that the Liberals only trail the Torys by 5% in the 2005 projected vote share.
With the widely acknowledged voter apathy towards politics and in particular the Labour party, is there value to be found here backing the Tory's to re-win this seat or perhaps the Liberals to capture it?
Can the Scottish nationalists make head way? It is certain they will probably win more votes than ever here, mostly taken from Labour, so where does this leave us with the betting side of things ...

A tenner on the Tory's at present would return you roughly £26.25 in total.
A tenner on the Lib Dems would return you £60 ...This has to be the best value and my tip for this constituency with the Lib Dems only trailing by 5% in vote share and the fact the SNP likely to steal votes from Labour, the Liberals could Nick this. (pun intended)

England

Ealing and Central Acton

Can the Liberals win in Ealing and Central Acton?

In 2005 Labour won here with 33.4% of the vote, the Conservatives were second with 31.2% and the Liberal Democrats were third with 30.6% of the vote. I think its fair to say this is another three horse race with not a lot between the party's.

The seat is also Conservative target number 18 and Liberal Democrat target number 10. Remarkably the bookies have weighed the odds up as so:

Conservatives: 4/9
Liberal Democrats: 7/4
Labour: 14/1

Labour the incumbent party with the largest previous vote share are the outsiders at 14/1. The Conservatives are favourites with the Liberal Democrats being given good value in my opinion at 7/4. A ten pound bet on the Liberal Democrats to secure this seat, which is in their top ten of desired seats and would of had much resources dedicated to it returns £27.50 in total. Not bad!

As previously stated all bets and opinions are personal and not to be taken as gospel.

Stop back again soon!

Adam =)